Thursday, May 27, 2010

Group D analysis

In Group D, we find one of the more balanced and competitive groups in the World Cup. Germany, Australia, Ghana and Serbia will give us some of the most exciting games in the tournament and it will be hard to distinguish who will advance from this group. Although the Germans are one of football's superpowers, the other three teams are rising organizations that will give them a run for their money in the tournament.

Let's start off with Germany. One of the most successful and consistent teams in soccer, they have won the World Cup three times (1954, 1974 and 1990), the European championship three times (1972, 1980 and 1996) and have only been eliminated in the group stage of the World Cup once (1938)! Even more impressive, from the 17 World Cups they have appeared (withdrew from the tournament in 1930 and were banned in 1950), they have reached the semifinals a record 11 times (including 7 final appearances)! As Gary Lineker once said, "football is a simple game; 22 men chase a ball for 90 minutes and at the end the Germans win."

Die Mannschaft have a traditional soccer style with a 4-4-2 formation, in which they play organized, strong and fast-paced football. Although they have never been recognized to boast a "flashy", fancy style, they deliver results with precise offense. But in the past month, the team has recently suffered the loss of their captain Michael Ballack to an ankle injury. His leadership and experience absent in the center-midfield can prove costly to the team's dynamics. Also, head coach Joachim Low faces the problem of not having a strong front line. With forwards such as Miroslav Klose, Lukas Podolski and Mario Gomez, Germany should have one of the scariest offense in the tournament. However, all of three players had a bad season in the Bundesliga, in which Klose and Podolski only scored 5 goals between them in their respective clubs, and Gomez saw much of the benched in the latter part of the season. Low now faces the dilemma of either counting on his three preferred forwards who have been slumping, or looking to untested players such as Thomas Muller and Cacau (Muller has only 1 cap for Germany, Cacau has 6) to solve their offensive problems.

My player to watch for Germany is Mesut Ozil. The 21-year-old midfielder impressed last year at the U-21 European championship, where he shined in the 4-0 victory over England in the final. Ozil works well as an attacking midfielder or as a winger. Although he may be inconsistent, he has the ability to change the tempo and dimension of attack with his speed and great ball work. But with the loss of Ballack, Ozil might have to take control of the midfield. I choose Germany to win Group D.
Photo: Germany in a training session (By Kerstin Joensson/AP Photo)

The second team in this group is Australia who will be participating in their third World Cup. After reaching their first tournament in Germany 1974, they had to wait 32 years to reach their second appearance in 2006. The Australians had a very difficult road to reach their past two tournaments, due to their participation in the OFC (Oceania Confederation), where only one representative was allowed in the World Cup after a series of playoff fixtures against the last-placed teams of the CONCACAF (North and Central America) and CONEMBOL (South America) confederations. However, after joining AFC (Asian confederation) at the end of 2006, Australia had an easier road to the World Cup, where four teams of this confederation qualify automatically to the tournament (Australia finished in first place of their qualification group).

The Socceroos are looking to imitate their success from 2006; they picked up their first World Cup victory in their history (a 3-1 vicotry who came from behind versus Japon ) and advanced to the second round in which they lost in a controversial game to Italy (Italy received a penalty in the stoppage time of the game, in which Francesco Totti scored in the 95 minute to win 1-0). Head coach Pim Verbeek has selected 14 players who were featured in the 2006 edition for his 30-man preliminary roster in his search for experience from players as Harry Kewell and Mark Bresciano, but has also turned to youth for speed and ability from players as James Holland and Nikita Rukavytsya.

My player to watch for Australia is Tim Cahill. The 30-year-old midfield has become a prominent player for his nation and club at Everton in the English Premier League. He is an attacking midfield who can score like a striker. Although he lacks the abilities that of a true "10" attacking midfielder, his dedication and tireless efforts can lead Australia to a consecutive second round appearance in the World Cup. However, with a tough first game against Germany that can prove pivotal, I see the Socceroos not finishing in second place in the group and losing out of the tournament.
Photo: Tim Cahill in a training for Australia (By Mick Tsikas/Reuters)

Next, let's look at one of the world's rising teams, Ghana. The Four-time African were FIFA's most improved team in 2005 and made their first World Cup appearance in 2006. After starting with a loss to eventually champions Italy (2-0), Ghana defeated Czech Republic (2-0) and the United States (2-1) to be the only African team to move on to the second round (Ivory Coast, Togo, Angola and Tunisia were eliminated in the group stages) where they eventually loss to Brazil (3-0). For this year's edition, they were the first team to qualify to this year's World Cup from their continent (South Africa qualified automatically because they are the host nation) with a 4-1-1 record.

However, the Black Stars have recently obtained a major setback to their World Cup aspirations, the loss of Michael Essien. The 27-year-old Chelsea midfield suffered a knee injury earlier this year while playing for Ghana at the African Cup, but was not able to recover for this summer's tournament. Essien is the heart of the team in the midfield and as a leader, and will be one the the world's best players missing in the tournament. Although head coach Milovan Rajevac might have been aware that Essien would not be fit for the World Cup, he has selected a 23-man roster that is still capable of competing at the highest level with speed, strength and youth (The average age in the roster is 24).

My player to watch for Ghana is Sulley Muntari. The 25-year-old is capable of player central or left midfield, and has just finished off a victorious season with Internazionale (Inter captured a treble season winning the Serie A, the Italian Cup and the UEFA Champions League). With Essien out of the tournament, Muntari will have a more central midfield role to play in and will be looked upon for his experience. However, I believe that the Black Stars will not be capable to cope with Essien's loss, and will be one of the African teams to be eliminated in the group stage.
Photo: Ghana in action at the African Nations Cup (By Amr Abdallah/Reuters)

The last team of the group is Serbia, who is another team that is rising in the international scene from Europe. They are currently ranked 15th in the world by FIFA, and had an excellent World Cup qualification run by winning their group with a 7-1-2 record, dumping France in second place to play an elimination playoff. Although this will be their first time in the tournament as independent Serbia, they have played as SFR Yugoslavia (1950-1990), FR Yugoslavia (1994-2002) and Serbia and Montenegro (2006).

The Beli Orlovi is comprised of a talented squad, worthy of competing with any team in the tournament. They have a solid defense with English Premier League duo, Manchester United's Nemanja Vidic and Chelsea's Branislav Ivanovic, along with rising 21-year-old Neven Subotic impressing in his 11 caps. They have a talented midfield with a treble-winner of their own in Dejan Stankovic, who also had a great season with Internazionale as a defensive midfielder. In addition, although they might not have world-name strikers, Nikola Zigic and Danko Lazovic are both dependable forwards that can lead the attack for the Serbians.

My player to watch for this team is Nemanja Vidic. The first defender I have chosen to watch for in the tournament, Vidic is a strong player with GQ Magazine calling him a "brutish enforcer with a look to match." The 28-year-old defender has made a powerful partnership with English teammate Rio Ferdinand in Manchester United as one of the most-feared central-backs for their "no-nonsense" defending. In addition, Vidic was part the Serbian defense that only allowed one goal in 10 games in the qualification run to the 2006 World Cup, and is determined to bring that strong defense back to Serbia for this year's tournament. I choose Serbia to take second place in Group D.
Photo: Nemanja Vidic(R) in action against South Korea (By Eddie Keogh/Reuters)

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